Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
